Want a real read on the economy? Forget the jobs report, try transportation stocks.
- - Want a real read on the economy? Forget the jobs report, try transportation stocks.
Francisco VelasquezJanuary 15, 2026 at 12:00 AM
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The government's labor data is a rearview mirror. For investors, US transportation stocks may be a better forecast of the road ahead.
"The jobs report is backward-looking, while markets are forward-looking," Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, told Yahoo Finance.
While investors squint at the lagging jobs report, the "physical" economy has already pulled ahead, evidenced by the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT), which hit a record 18,184.62 on Jan. 9. The breakout suggests the 2026 economic expansion isn't just about tech's biggest players.
Lerner argued that this surge, alongside other cyclicals like small caps and materials, indicates the market has been anticipating an improvement in economic activity. He suggested the labor market may not be the most reliable signal, as recent productivity gains allow companies to do more with less.
Read more: What's ahead for stocks and gold in 2026? What experts are watching.
Mary Ann Bartels, chief investment strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, noted in a recent report that these measurable gains in economic efficiency reaffirm that artificial intelligence is finally delivering on its promise.
The rally could also be about "Dow theory" math, which skeptics have long ignored. Under this century-old rule, a bull market isn't "real" until both the industrials and transportation sectors hit new highs.
While the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) has notched its own milestones this month, Bartels pointed out that transportation is still chasing its 2021 peak — a technical gap that suggests the index has significant room to run later this year.
That potential growth is being fueled by a structural shift in how high-value goods are being moved. Josh Runion, associate portfolio manager at Mariner Wealth, noted that because AI hardware — like GPUs and server racks — is costly, time-critical, and fragile, companies like FedEx (FDX) are "uniquely suited" to win through their express air networks.
FedEx airplanes are parked at Los Angeles International Airport on Oct. 17, 2025. (Kevin Carter/Getty Images) (Kevin Carter via Getty Images)
Jeff Krumpelman, head of equities at Mariner, noted that the physical AI tailwind could be a stimulus for big 2026 economic gains.
Beyond AI spending, Krumpelman pointed to a resilient affluent consumer and incentives tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as primary engines for growth. Heavyweights like Old Dominion (ODFL) and Uber (UBER) are among the top performers within the US transportation sector in January
Krumpelman also pointed to historic catalysts like the upcoming FIFA World Cup, which is expected to generate over $5 billion in immediate economic activity — a massive tailwind for airlines like Delta (DAL) and rail giants like Union Pacific (UNP).
"These sources of stimulus should help drive a renaissance in the goods sector and more sustained growth in freight volume," Krumpelman said.
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Francisco Velasquez is a Reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on LinkedIn, X, and Instagram. Story tips? Email him at [email protected].
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